Bullion Insights for the week of 21 August 2017

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PRECIOUS METALS MARKET REVIEW.

Weekly Spot Price (14 August – 18 August 2017)
	Open	High	Low	Close
Gold	1289.85	1300.61	1267.06	1284.1
Silver	17.07	17.27	16.53	16.93
Platinum	984.08	987.81	950.43	976.58

 

Precious Metals News Updates:

·	Gold trades little changed as investors focus on geopolitics, central bank meet. Gold prices were little changed on Monday as investors sought further direction after a week of geopolitical uncertainty in the United States and Europe and ahead of a meeting of central bankers later this week.
·	All that glitters is profit in China’s gold mines as demand for safe haven boost precious metal sales. Hedging demand triggered by political uncertainty became the main driver of the periodical increases in gold price.

 

Economic figures to monitor this week:

 

Day & Date	Economic Events
Wednesday, 23 August 2017	ECB President Draghi Speaks New Home Sales (Jul) (US) Crude Oil Inventories
Thursday, 24 August 2017	GDP (QoQ) (Q2) (UK) Existing Home Sales (Jul) (US)
Friday, 25 August 2017	Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Jul) (US) Fed Chair Yellen Speaks

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS.

Current Market mode*: Trending Up (as defined by daily ADX)
Weekly Short Term Outlook: Up (as defined by weekly CCI Indicators)
			Short term cyclical indicators show an upward bias for the week as CCI (3) and CCI (9) continues to hover around the 100 level.
Long term trend: Up (as defined by yearly Moving Averages)
			The nearest support level is now at USD1082 (13 period EMA) as gold prices continue to rise.

NOTE:
In Non-Trending Mode markets (aka range trading markets), CCI directional Indicators have statistically demonstrated a higher correlation to market direction. Additionally, we overlay the CCIs in a format that further reveals the market cyclical structure and thus enhances market analysis.

COMMITMENT OF TRADERS REPORT (ANALYSIS)

Reportable positions as of 15/8/2017,

Commitment of Traders Report
Commercial				Non Commercial
Producer/Merchant /Processor/User		Swap Dealers		Managed Money		Other Reportables		Non Reportable Positions
Long	Short	Long	Short	Long	Short	Long	Short	Long	Short
32,943	191,174	71,922	114,046	196,453	16,916	80,313	68,019	44,294	35,769
Changes in commitments from 8/8/2017
-424	+13,652	-2,380	+23,283	+29,385	-11,586	+3,188	+2,170	-23	+2,227

                 

OUR TAKE:

Commercials continued to decrease their long positions while increasing their shorts positions by -424 contracts and 13,652 contracts respectively during the period of 8/8/2017 to 15/8/2017. Gold rallied 2% to reach the 1290 level, a level last seen in June. This is the first time in 4 weeks that Commercials increased their shorts position significantly. The last time this happened, Gold rallied as well.

(Focus is only on the Producer/Merchant/Processor/User as they are hedgers and Gold producers. Non Commercials refer to CTAs and fund managers who trade (speculate) professionally. Commercial hedgers usually hold an edge over the speculators in the long run due to their “stronger hand” advantage and are usually reliable indicators of trend changes)

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