In this article, World Platinum Investment Council explores the theme of Platinum’s Correlation to Gold and what this suggests for Platinum Investors.
Platinum is a precious metal that is also industrial. As an investment asset, platinum’s value is influenced by its supply demand fundamentals and also the macro trends that affect precious metals. More investors are considering platinum’s macro responses when looking for an alternative to equities; this could increase platinum investment demand.
Market view: Gold is acknowledged as the investment asset least correlated with other investment classes. It’s called a currency more often than a commodity but yet it is included in many commodity indices.
Our view: Platinum remains in lockstep with gold and consequently offers similar benefits. The sustained high correlation between the price of platinum and the price of gold since 2011 suggests that platinum offers investors an alternative investment that is ‘as good as gold’.
Many investors looking for asset classes largely to diversify risk, consider commodities or gold. Gold is included in many portfolios as a hedge against macro events, global risk, interest rates, inflation, etc., and is reliably traded on macro trends — more particularly those that directly impact the US dollar.
Platinum offers similar qualities. When (or ‘if’ as critics suggest) platinum shrugs off the negative sentiment that currently overwhelms its supply demand fundamentals, this diversifier also offers interesting upside, in our view, but remains ‘as good as gold’ until then.
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Extracted from World Platinum Investment:
Platinum Quarterly is commissioned by the World Platinum Investment Council and based upon independent research and analysis conducted by SFA (Oxford). It is our intention to publish similar commentary every quarter ensuring greater transparency of the global platinum market and the delivery of regular data to investors.
The next Platinum Quarterly will be published on 6th September 2017.
This eleventh edition of the Platinum Quarterly, published on 15th May 2017, includes Q1 2017 analysis of platinum supply and demand fundamentals. It also gives a view of the global above ground stocks of platinum and an outlook for market fundamentals for 2017.
An overview of this report
This report incorporates analysis of platinum supply and demand during the first quarter of 2017, during which time total mine supply hit 1,330 koz, down 6.3% year-on-year and the lowest since Q3 2014.
- Today’s report shows that overall platinum supply is projected to fall by 2% year-on-year to 7,330 koz in 2017, with both primary and secondary supply expected to decline.
- Recycling is projected to fall by 6% year-on-year to 1,760 koz in 2017. Secondary supply from jewellery recycling is projected to decline by 20% year- on-year with recycling trends normalising following unusually large stock flows in China last year.
- Automotive demand for 2016 and 2017 is revised upward by 45 koz. The revisions reflect higher than expected global vehicle sales with increased loadings, while greater scrutiny of emissions is also believed to be limiting moves to thrift platinum loadings.
- Global platinum ETF holdings grew by 65 koz in the first quarter, with increases observed across most regions. ETF assets in the quarter were at their highest level since the fourth quarter of 2015. Bar and coin demand during the first three months of 2017 was supported by the minting of 20,000 one- ounce US American Eagle bullion coins in January, all of which were sold in just three days. Overall platinum investment demand is now projected to be 250 koz this year.
- Global platinum jewellery demand for the quarter increased 3% year-on-year, buoyed by increased Chinese retail sales during the quarter. However, global jewellery demand for 2017 is forecast to slip 1% from 2016, with anticipated declines in China and Japan outweighing gains in India and other regions.
- The platinum market is expected to be broadly balanced over the year, with a deficit of 65 koz in 2017 predicted. Above Ground Stocks are expected to end the year at 1,885 koz, a 3% fall on 2016, but more than 54% down from 2012.